NCAA pool bracket manager by PickHoops

PickHoops College Basketball Power Ratings

                Pick65 Power Ratings

              Results through 3/13/05

+------------------------------------------------------+
|  1 North Carolina                   (27- 4)  1.280924|
|  2 Illinois                         (32- 1)  1.271392|
|  3 Duke                             (25- 5)  1.247945|
|  4 Louisville                       (29- 4)  1.230938|
|  5 Florida                          (23- 7)  1.225246|
|  6 Utah State                       (24- 6)  1.212798|
|  7 Oklahoma State                   (24- 6)  1.207511|
|  8 Michigan State                   (22- 6)  1.203606|
|  9 Kentucky                         (25- 5)  1.192038|
| 10 Villanova                        (22- 7)  1.189612|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 11 Oklahoma                         (24- 7)  1.180551|
| 12 Utah                             (27- 5)  1.179240|
| 13 Kansas                           (23- 6)  1.178274|
| 14 Alabama                          (25- 7)  1.170703|
| 15 Connecticut                      (22- 7)  1.169326|
| 16 Washington                       (27- 5)  1.169008|
| 17 Wake Forest                      (26- 5)  1.168259|
| 18 Vermont                          (24- 6)  1.160528|
| 19 Cincinnati                       (23- 8)  1.159225|
| 20 Holy Cross                       (24- 6)  1.158656|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 21 Georgia Tech                     (19-11)  1.152170|
| 22 Pacific                          (26- 3)  1.145866|
| 23 George Washington                (22- 7)  1.143144|
| 24 Arizona                          (27- 6)  1.142632|
| 25 Syracuse                         (27- 6)  1.141735|
| 26 Pennsylvania                     (20- 8)  1.140692|
| 27 Boston College                   (24- 4)  1.131637|
| 28 Wisconsin                        (22- 8)  1.130501|
| 29 Gonzaga                          (25- 4)  1.129235|
| 30 Wisconsin-Milwaukee              (24- 5)  1.126726|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 31 Southern Illinois                (25- 7)  1.125864|
| 32 Pittsburgh                       (20- 8)  1.125499|
| 33 Boston University                (20- 8)  1.117209|
| 34 Texas A&M                        (18- 9)  1.116555|
| 35 North Carolina State             (19-13)  1.113582|
| 36 Old Dominion                     (28- 5)  1.113296|
| 37 Texas Tech                       (20-10)  1.113026|
| 38 Ohio State                       (20-12)  1.109237|
| 39 New Mexico                       (26- 6)  1.108909|
| 40 Vanderbilt                       (18-13)  1.108783|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 41 Arkansas                         (18-12)  1.108266|
| 42 Nevada                           (23- 6)  1.106813|
| 43 Texas                            (20-10)  1.106479|
| 44 Iowa                             (21-11)  1.100381|
| 45 Air Force                        (18-12)  1.099427|
| 46 Texas-El Paso                    (26- 7)  1.099131|
| 47 Mississippi State                (22-10)  1.097930|
| 48 Louisiana State                  (20- 9)  1.096941|
| 49 Winthrop                         (27- 6)  1.092244|
| 50 Creighton                        (23-10)  1.091026|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 51 Maryland                         (16-12)  1.089034|
| 52 UAB                              (21-10)  1.087511|
| 53 Northern Iowa                    (20-10)  1.085144|
| 54 Minnesota                        (21-10)  1.084056|
| 55 Oral Roberts                     (25- 6)  1.083608|
| 56 SW Missouri State                (18-12)  1.083373|
| 57 Charlotte                        (21- 7)  1.081800|
| 58 Louisiana-Lafayette              (20-10)  1.080714|
| 59 Western Michigan                 (19-11)  1.079350|
| 60 Wichita State                    (20- 9)  1.078519|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 61 South Carolina                   (15-13)  1.075461|
| 62 Bucknell                         (22- 9)  1.074804|
| 63 St. Mary's California            (25- 8)  1.074657|
| 64 Akron                            (19-10)  1.072133|
| 65 Memphis                          (19-15)  1.071848|
| 66 Southeastern Louisiana           (24- 8)  1.071652|
| 67 West Virginia                    (21-10)  1.070597|
| 68 Miami (OH)                       (19-10)  1.070247|
| 69 Niagara                          (20- 9)  1.067583|
| 70 St. Joseph's                     (19-11)  1.067416|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 71 Northeastern                     (20- 9)  1.067089|
| 72 Iowa State                       (18-11)  1.061736|
| 73 Buffalo                          (22- 9)  1.061689|
| 74 Virginia Commonwealth            (19-12)  1.060431|
| 75 Denver                           (20-10)  1.059653|
| 76 Western Kentucky                 (21- 8)  1.059444|
| 77 Drexel                           (17-11)  1.058275|
| 78 Hofstra                          (21- 8)  1.057145|
| 79 Ohio                             (21- 9)  1.056694|
| 80 Notre Dame                       (17-11)  1.056037|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 81 Arizona State                    (18-13)  1.054883|
| 82 Rice                             (19-11)  1.054525|
| 83 Xavier                           (17-12)  1.054269|
| 84 Clemson                          (16-15)  1.053724|
| 85 South Carolina State             (19-12)  1.053514|
| 86 DePaul                           (19-10)  1.052953|
| 87 Temple                           (16-13)  1.052474|
| 88 Northridge                       (18-13)  1.052148|
| 89 Miami (FL)                       (16-12)  1.050957|
| 90 Stanford                         (18-12)  1.050818|
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 91 Kent State                       (20-11)  1.047899|
| 92 UCLA                             (18-10)  1.044914|
| 93 Middle Tennessee                 (19-12)  1.043947|
| 94 George Mason                     (16-13)  1.041610|
| 95 Georgetown                       (17-12)  1.041340|
| 96 Toledo                           (16-13)  1.040194|
| 97 Murray State                     (17-11)  1.039328|
| 98 Nebraska                         (14-14)  1.039143|
| 99 Providence                       (13-17)  1.039137|
|100 Kansas State                     (17-12)  1.038827|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|101 Princeton                        (15-12)  1.036290|
|102 Texas Christian                  (19-13)  1.034665|
|103 Indiana                          (15-13)  1.033137|
|104 Dayton                           (18-11)  1.032648|
|105 Tennessee                        (14-17)  1.031938|
|106 College of Charleston            (18-10)  1.031819|
|107 Davidson                         (20- 8)  1.031270|
|108 Southern Miss                    ( 3- 2)  1.030910|
|109 Marquette                        (18-11)  1.030908|
|110 Southern Methodist               (13-13)  1.029899|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|111 Albany NY                        (13-15)  1.029379|
|112 Ball State                       (15-13)  1.028358|
|113 Sam Houston State                (17-12)  1.026371|
|114 UNLV                             (16-13)  1.025252|
|115 Houston                          (18-13)  1.024601|
|116 Washington State                 (12-16)  1.023885|
|117 Fairleigh Dickinson              (20-12)  1.023209|
|118 Rider                            (19-11)  1.022827|
|119 IUPUI                            (16-13)  1.022365|
|120 Oregon                           (14-13)  1.020698|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|121 Eastern Kentucky                 (22- 8)  1.020521|
|122 Lamar                            (19-10)  1.020353|
|123 Cal State Fullerton              (18-10)  1.020228|
|124 San Francisco                    (16-13)  1.019775|
|125 Manhattan                        (15-14)  1.018543|
|126 St. Peter's                      (15-13)  1.018103|
|127 Illinois-Chicago                 (15-14)  1.017789|
|128 UNC-Wilmington                   (19-10)  1.017721|
|129 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi         (19- 8)  1.016316|
|130 Georgia Southern                 (17-13)  1.016112|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|131 Tennessee Tech                   (18-11)  1.014451|
|132 San Diego                        (16-13)  1.014231|
|133 Southeast Missouri State         (15-14)  1.014021|
|134 Mississippi                      (14-17)  1.013920|
|135 Central Florida                  (23- 8)  1.013108|
|136 Fairfield                        (15-15)  1.012774|
|137 Wyoming                          (15-13)  1.012027|
|138 Northwestern State               (20-12)  1.011688|
|139 Arkansas State                   (16-13)  1.011419|
|140 Chattanooga                      (20-10)  1.010876|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|141 Virginia Tech                    (15-13)  1.010854|
|142 Portland State                   (19- 9)  1.008612|
|143 Hawaii                           (12-13)  1.007782|
|144 Florida State                    (12-19)  1.007360|
|145 American                         (16-12)  1.007137|
|146 Detroit                          (14-16)  1.006636|
|147 Delaware State                   (19-14)  1.006618|
|148 Hampton                          (17-13)  1.006231|
|149 Butler                           (13-15)  1.005317|
|150 Birmingham Southern              (15-14)  1.005124|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|151 Iona                             (15-16)  1.004068|
|152 Missouri                         (16-16)  1.002669|
|153 Portland                         (14-15)  1.000801|
|154 Alabama A&M                      (18-13)  1.000796|
|155 Pepperdine                       (17-14)  0.999918|
|156 Arkansas-Little Rock             (18-10)  0.997761|
|157 Northern Illinois                (11-17)  0.997673|
|158 Louisiana Tech                   (14-15)  0.997480|
|159 Seton Hall                       (12-16)  0.997459|
|160 Santa Clara                      (15-16)  0.997089|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|161 Illinois State                   (17-13)  0.996837|
|162 Tennessee State                  (14-17)  0.996744|
|163 South Florida                    (14-16)  0.996521|
|164 Fresno State                     (16-14)  0.995502|
|165 Bowling Green                    (18-11)  0.995196|
|166 Texas-San Antonio                (14-13)  0.994855|
|167 Gardner Webb                     (18-12)  0.994560|
|168 Binghamton                       (10-17)  0.994223|
|169 Wright State                     (15-15)  0.992674|
|170 Mississippi Valley State         (13-14)  0.991916|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|171 Belmont                          (14-16)  0.990232|
|172 Furman                           (16-14)  0.989995|
|173 High Point                       (14-18)  0.989628|
|174 Southern California              (12-17)  0.989477|
|175 St. John's                       ( 9-18)  0.988879|
|176 Austin Peay                      (13-19)  0.987741|
|177 Montana                          (18-12)  0.987510|
|178 Virginia                         (14-15)  0.987148|
|179 Bradley                          (13-15)  0.986695|
|180 Appalachian State                (18-13)  0.985097|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|181 Oregon State                     (17-14)  0.982492|
|182 Monmouth (NJ)                    (16-13)  0.981829|
|183 Samford                          (14-13)  0.981651|
|184 UMKC                             (16-12)  0.980132|
|185 Georgia State                    (14-15)  0.979894|
|186 Lehigh                           (14-15)  0.979779|
|187 Mercer                           (16-12)  0.979774|
|188 Coppin State                     (14-15)  0.979037|
|189 St. Francis (NY)                 (13-14)  0.977745|
|190 Tulsa                            ( 9-20)  0.977683|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|191 Wisconsin-Green Bay              (17-11)  0.977532|
|192 Colorado                         (14-16)  0.977339|
|193 Drake                            (13-16)  0.976731|
|194 Northwestern                     (15-15)  0.976306|
|195 Colorado State                   (11-17)  0.976292|
|196 Valparaiso                       (16-14)  0.975985|
|197 Yale                             (10-16)  0.975721|
|198 Michigan                         (13-18)  0.974205|
|199 Fordham                          (13-16)  0.973975|
|200 Oakland                          (12-18)  0.972992|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|201 Auburn                           (14-17)  0.971505|
|202 Central Connecticut State        (12-15)  0.971190|
|203 UC Irvine                        (16-13)  0.970208|
|204 Loyola-Chicago                   (13-17)  0.969704|
|205 Harvard                          (12-15)  0.968648|
|206 Maine                            (14-15)  0.966316|
|207 Loyola-Marymount                 (11-17)  0.966316|
|208 Richmond                         (14-15)  0.964645|
|209 Evansville                       (11-17)  0.963984|
|210 Norfolk State                    (13-14)  0.962966|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|211 Florida Atlantic                 (10-17)  0.962280|
|212 Weber State                      (13-16)  0.962022|
|213 Indiana State                    (11-20)  0.961976|
|214 San Diego State                  (11-18)  0.961721|
|215 California                       (13-16)  0.960722|
|216 Northern Arizona                 (11-17)  0.960422|
|217 Massachusetts                    (16-12)  0.960215|
|218 Eastern Michigan                 (12-18)  0.959988|
|219 New Orleans                      (13-17)  0.959394|
|220 Wofford                          (15-14)  0.958732|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|221 Cornell                          (13-13)  0.956775|
|222 St. Francis (PA)                 (15-13)  0.956228|
|223 Brigham Young                    ( 9-21)  0.954431|
|224 Wagner                           (13-17)  0.954333|
|225 McNeese State                    (13-15)  0.953698|
|226 Florida International            (12-17)  0.953365|
|227 Santa Barbara                    (11-18)  0.951850|
|228 Delaware                         (10-20)  0.951332|
|229 Boise State                      (17-17)  0.951148|
|230 Brown                            (12-16)  0.950624|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|231 Columbia                         (10-15)  0.949126|
|232 Purdue                           ( 7-21)  0.949094|
|233 Marist                           (11-16)  0.948928|
|234 Troy State                       (12-18)  0.948348|
|235 Colgate                          (12-14)  0.947538|
|236 Robert Morris                    (14-15)  0.947288|
|237 Rutgers                          (10-19)  0.946009|
|238 Montana State                    (14-14)  0.943809|
|239 Stony Brook                      (12-17)  0.943701|
|240 North Texas                      (14-14)  0.942526|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|241 Western Illinois                 (11-17)  0.941959|
|242 Saint Louis                      ( 9-21)  0.940588|
|243 Lipscomb                         (16-12)  0.937223|
|244 LIU Brooklyn                     (14-15)  0.935865|
|245 Southern                         (14-15)  0.935809|
|246 LaSalle                          (10-19)  0.934333|
|247 Morgan State                     (15-16)  0.934057|
|248 Marshall                         ( 6-22)  0.933608|
|249 Canisius                         (11-18)  0.932952|
|250 Stephen F. Austin                (12-15)  0.932923|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|251 Cleveland State                  ( 9-17)  0.932489|
|252 UNC-Asheville                    (11-17)  0.932157|
|253 Coastal Carolina                 (10-19)  0.932055|
|254 Navy                             ( 8-19)  0.931321|
|255 Texas State-San Marcos           (13-14)  0.930924|
|256 Grambling                        (14-12)  0.930570|
|257 Texas-Arlington                  (13-15)  0.930106|
|258 UNC-Greensboro                   (17-15)  0.929653|
|259 Alabama State                    (15-14)  0.926996|
|260 Chicago State                    ( 9-19)  0.925461|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|261 Jacksonville                     (16-13)  0.924927|
|262 E. Tennessee State               (11-19)  0.924686|
|263 Eastern Illinois                 (12-16)  0.923333|
|264 Idaho                            ( 8-22)  0.923153|
|265 Eastern Washington               ( 8-20)  0.922190|
|266 Radford                          (12-15)  0.921540|
|267 Southern Utah                    (13-15)  0.921145|
|268 South Alabama                    (10-18)  0.921102|
|269 Texas-Pan American               (11-16)  0.920157|
|270 Charleston Southern              (13-17)  0.920139|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|271 Liberty                          (13-15)  0.919988|
|272 Jackson State                    (15-17)  0.919910|
|273 Quinnipiac                       (10-17)  0.919448|
|274 Florida A&M                      (14-15)  0.919201|
|275 Stetson                          (10-17)  0.918308|
|276 New Hampshire                    ( 9-19)  0.917743|
|277 Long Beach State                 (10-20)  0.915922|
|278 Texas Southern                   (10-15)  0.911700|
|279 Lafayette                        ( 9-19)  0.910787|
|280 East Carolina                    ( 9-19)  0.909898|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|281 Jacksonville State               ( 7-22)  0.909385|
|282 Maryland-Baltimore County        (11-18)  0.909047|
|283 Sacramento State                 (11-16)  0.907134|
|284 Penn State                       ( 7-23)  0.906276|
|285 Dartmouth                        (10-17)  0.905369|
|286 Duquesne                         ( 8-22)  0.904870|
|287 Mount St. Mary's                 ( 6-19)  0.901468|
|288 Rhode Island                     ( 6-22)  0.899335|
|289 Central Michigan                 (10-18)  0.898065|
|290 Baylor                           ( 9-19)  0.897419|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|291 Georgia                          ( 8-21)  0.895933|
|292 Elon University                  ( 8-23)  0.893506|
|293 Towson                           ( 5-24)  0.890980|
|294 Siena                            ( 6-24)  0.890240|
|295 Bethune-Cookman                  (14-17)  0.889628|
|296 New Mexico State                 ( 5-24)  0.889081|
|297 Louisiana-Monroe                 ( 8-19)  0.886750|
|298 California Riverside             ( 9-19)  0.885583|
|299 IUPU-Fort Wayne                  ( 7-22)  0.883451|
|300 Tulane                           ( 9-18)  0.882235|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|301 Loyola-Maryland                  ( 6-22)  0.880809|
|302 William & Mary                   ( 7-21)  0.879499|
|303 Idaho State                      ( 7-18)  0.878302|
|304 Sacred Heart                     ( 4-23)  0.877484|
|305 The Citadel                      (12-16)  0.876264|
|306 Morehead State                   (10-15)  0.873675|
|307 North Carolina A&T               ( 6-24)  0.869971|
|308 Hartford                         ( 8-19)  0.868784|
|309 Cal Poly SLO                     ( 5-22)  0.865773|
|310 Western Carolina                 ( 8-22)  0.863384|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|311 San Jose State                   ( 6-23)  0.863098|
|312 Nicholls State                   ( 6-21)  0.862606|
|313 Tennessee-Martin                 ( 6-21)  0.861778|
|314 VMI                              ( 9-18)  0.858625|
|315 Arkansas-Pine Bluff              ( 7-21)  0.856415|
|316 James Madison                    ( 6-22)  0.852857|
|317 Howard                           ( 5-23)  0.845349|
|318 Campbell                         ( 2-25)  0.827157|
|319 Centenary                        ( 3-24)  0.827149|
|320 Prairie View                     ( 5-23)  0.818856|
+------------------------------------------------------+
|321 Youngstown State                 ( 4-23)  0.816078|
|322 Alcorn State                     ( 7-22)  0.812740|
|323 Army                             ( 2-24)  0.793806|
|324 St. Bonaventure                  ( 2-26)  0.793502|
|325 Savannah State                   ( 0-28)  0.711556|
|326 Md. Eastern Shore                ( 2-27)  0.711291|

PickHoops Power Ratings FAQ

What are the PickHoops Power Ratings?

The Pick65 Power Ratings assigns a rating for each Division I men's U.S. college basketball team, and ranks them based on that rating. A higher numerical rating indicates a stronger team.

How does it rate the teams?

The Pick65 Power Ratings are formed by analyzing scores for all games played during the season. Actual win/loss results are not considered, only points scored and allowed and the strength of the opponent. Furthermore, no points scored in overtime are even considered. The point difference against each opponent is measured against how other teams fared against the opponent to arrive at an overall power rating. The resulting power ratings are sorted from top to bottom to form the ordered list.

Is this an accurate way to compare teams?

While these ratings have merit, ultimately the best it can hope to be is an approximation of teams relative strength. The power rating does not take into account the fact that non competitive games (i.e. blow-outs) often give false impressions of relative strengths since both the winner and loser loses incentive to play their best and use their best players. Also, this system does not take into account injuries or general upward or downward trends, but rather utilizes all games played independent of how recently they were played.

Is this a fair way to judge teams?

No. The players on the court are trying to win each game and are not expected to be concerned with the margin of victory or defeat. For this reason, it would not be fair to use a "power rating" to judge worthiness of teams. However, this system can be useful as a PREDICTOR of the outcome of upcoming games. The system is not meant to be used to dole out rewards such as post season tournament berths to higher rated teams.

Does it take home court advantage into account?

Yes. The home court advantage is measured based on a subset of games played so far. In general, the home court is worth about 6% more points, or 4 points on an absolute scale, but that can vary as new results are considered. In measuring the home court advantage, we are selective in which games we count due to scheduling biases.

Why is such and such a team (team A) rated so high?

This question usually comes to mind when "team A" is much lower in the human polls. Computer rankings have advantages and disadvantages over human polls. First of all, it is difficult for humans to consider margin of victory and strength of opponents for many games, while a computer can exhaustively examine every game. Secondly, traditional powers such as Kansas and Duke might have an advantage until actual loses prove otherwise since they are usually strong year after year. A computer can notice when a team is winning by lower margins of victory than expected and can can distinguish a win over a strong team from a win over an over-rated team.

Human polls on the other hand can take in much more intangibles factors. Some computer ratings may take into account upward and downward trends in ranking the teams, however as of now the PickHoops Power Ratings do not take this into account.

Ultimately, if a team is rated higher than expected, it can mean they are somewhat of a dark-horse, or the computer has over-ranked them, or even a combination of the two. A similar statement can be made about teams that are ranked lower than expected.

Why is Team A rated above Team B when Team B beat them head to head?

No one would deny that all teams have good days and bad days. So how do we know that when "team B" beat "team A" that "team A" was not just having a bad day? For example, in a recent year Purdue was the lone team to have beaten Duke late in the season, but few would suggest that Purdue was stronger than Duke. This question rarely comes up when there is a wide gap between teams. But if we accept the fact that Duke should be rated higher than Purdue, even though Purdue won head to head, does it not make sense that "team A" could be rated only slightly above "team B" even though "team B" beat "team A"?

What does the power rating mean?

The power rating is the ratio of expected points scored verse expected points allowed against a mythical "average" team. Thus roughly half the teams will have a power rating above 1 and half below.

Why is such and such a team's record incorrect?

We try to exercise reasonable care in recording game results, however since all PickHoops contributors have demanding day jobs and families, some errors may have slipped through the cracks. We welcome any correctional feedback that does not call into question the matrimonial status of our parents at the time of our births. E-mail that has correctional information should ideally have a web link to a teams complete record.

Can this be used to predict the outcome of games?

The PickHoops Power Ratings has had reasonable success in picking game outcomes. To get a rough predictor of the final score at the end of regulation of an upcoming game, take the average point total of 65.4 and multiply by the power rating of each time. Multiply the home team, if any, by 1.029. This offers only a crude predictor, which doesn't take into account offensive-defensive tendencies. We do NOT encourage using these calculations as a gambling resource.


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